Every five years the Canadian census provides key information about our region that provides insights into how our local economy ticks. Unfortunately, the most recent census was compromised as it was done in 2021 when the entire world was in the midst of the pandemic. Nonetheless, the data available online can help us understand the local key economic drivers and thus provides some of the information needed to make improvements.

Employment can be divided into three basic types, jobs that produce products sold outside the region, jobs based on money that re-circulates within a region and jobs based on government funds. The first type is of course the most important, as every community requires an influx of money to support all the other jobs. Over time, the key economic drivers have changed significantly in the Shuswap, beginning with agriculture that supported the original settlers, to the forest industry that was the dominant economic driver up until approximately forty years ago, to today when it is the accumulated wealth from past decades that is now driving the local economy.

The Shuswap, like other southern interior communities, is home to an increasing number of retirees, whose incomes from pensions and investments are by far the largest economic driver. The Census data provides the details, particularly when compared with the provincial data. A key statistic is age, given the median age for the province is 42.8, while the median age in the Shuswap is approximately 55. This metric does vary somewhat within our region, with the youngest region being Area D (Falkland, Salmon River and Deep Creek) where the median age is 48, while the oldest is Area F (North Shuswap) where it is 61 and in Salmon Arm it is 51.6. The population in Salmon Arm is aging as well, given that in 2016 the median age was 50.7 and there were more children under the age of 14.

There are other key indicators that point to the importance of retirement income to our local economy, such as the percentage of adults with non-employment income. Provincially, that metric is 31.3 percent, whereas the approximate average in the Shuswap is 42.2 percent. This metric varies from a high of 48.6 percent in Chase to a low of 34.8 percent in Area D and in Salmon Arm it is 38.1 percent. Another key metric is actual labour force participation, which provincially is 63.3 percent, while in the Shuswap the approximate average is 50.5 percent and in Salmon Arm it is 56.1 percent.

The Census also provides the percentage of the population that work in each labour sector.  Using the statistics for the two largest communities in the Shuswap gives the best idea of how many residents work in economic driver sectors. In Salmon Arm, over 20 percent either work in agriculture, forestry, mining, oil and gas, or manufacturing, which accounts for over 12 percent. Plus, there are some transportation, professional, management and administrative jobs that generate outside income. All the largest labour sectors; retail, healthcare and social assistance, education and construction are either government funded or primarily recirculate money.

In the South Shuswap, over 16 percent work in agriculture, forestry, mining, oil and gas, or manufacturing, which accounts for over seven percent. Construction, retail, healthcare and social assistance are the three top labour sectors. Since, in many ways, the South Shuswap is a satellite community for Salmon Arm, as many residents work and/or shop there, so the employment numbers do not provide a clear picture of its local economy.

Most of the efforts to support and improve the local economy focuses on attracting businesses and young families to our region, while there is little effort made to attract more retirees to move here from larger centres. Certainly, working families provide a huge boost to the economy, given their needs are far greater than seniors, and fortunately their numbers have been increasing. Also, many seniors head south for the winter along with the money they would otherwise spend in the community.

However, given that our communities are largely thriving thanks in many ways to the large share of the local economy funded by seniors, a good way to build on this success would be to promote the Shuswap amongst those who are heading into retirement. The real estate statistics for the BC Interior do show that this is already a trend as 20 percent of BC Interior home sales are to empty nestors and retirees, while 36 percent are moving into the Interior from outside each community, with 16 percent coming from the Lower Mainland.

Provincially, the median household income is $85,000, while in the Shuswap it varies from high of $75,000 in Salmon Arm and the South Shuswap to the low of $57,600 in Area D. The Census data also shows how the population is younger in the farming communities (Falkland, Salmon Valley and Deep Creek). Low-income prevalence is another key census metric, and it is highest in the smallest communities, where the unemployment rate is also higher. The most up-to-date data shows that the population has increased significantly since the 2021 Census, so it will be most interesting to see the results of the next Census scheduled for 2026.

POSTSCRIPT

Analyzing the economies of the rural Shuswap communities is nearly impossible, given that most residents travel elsewhere to work, including those who commute outside the region to work in Kamloops, Vernon or even Alberta. There are also those that work from home via the internet and their work is difficult to track. Also, a key sector in the Shuswap is tourism, but it is primarily seasonal. Only the numbers for accommodations, food services and retail apply to tourism and yet these numbers cannot differentiate between those jobs directly related to tourism and the jobs related to spending by residents.

Certainly, a younger demographic can result in a healthier economy as young families usually remain in a community for many more decades than retirees and are less of a strain on the healthcare system. Plus they create a strong demand for educational services and participate more in the community. However, it is a major challenge to compete with larger jurisdictions to attract the industries and business that provide major new employment opportunities. Younger families typically flock to larger cities where they can find better employment opportunities.

Perhaps the best strategy for economic development would be to improve the amenities that help attract both retirees and young families, such as recreational opportunities such as biking and hiking trails, sport facilities and cultural venues. Fortunately, outdoor recreational opportunities are increasing with the rail trail under construction, new bike trails being created and the new foreshore trail along Salmon Arm Bay in the planning stage. It will also be key to better protect those features that already attract both residents and tourists, including our lakes, rivers and forests. As the climate crisis intensifies, protecting natural values will become more difficult, so more efforts are needed especially regarding wildfire prevention and protection.

Below are some of the key metrics for each of the regions within the Shuswap, although most of the areas within the North Okanagan Regional District are not included (Lumby, Cherryvile, and Areas F, D, and E). Note that the population for most areas increased at a greater rate than it did provincially, which is primarily an indication of an improving economy, however more people can result in a greater strain on services and higher costs for local governments.

2021 Census

British Columbia

Population – 5,000,879

Pop. Increase – 7.6%

over 65 – 20.3%

under 14 – 14.3%

median age 42.8

average household size 2.4

median household income $85,000

Employment income – 68.7%

Without employment income – 31.3 %

Low-income prevalence – 10.8%

Labour force participation – 63.3%

Unemployed – 8.4%

Labour force top three sales, trades, business

Jobs top three – Health, retail, professional and tech

Salmon Arm

Population – 19,432

Pop. Increase 9.7%

Over 65 – 30.4%

Under 14 – 14.5%

Median age – 51.6

Average household size – 2.3

Median household income – $75,000

Without employment income – 38.1%

With employment income – 61.9%

Low-income prevalence – 10.6%

Labour force participation – 56.9%

Unemployed – 7.9%

Occupations (top 3) – sales & service, trades & transport & operators, Business, finance and administration

Labour sectors (top 3) – retail, healthcare & social assistance, education, (fourth is construction)

South Shuswap (Area C , now Areas G & C)

Population – 8,919

Increase – 12.6%

Over 65 – 36.3%

Under 14 – 11.3%

Median age – 58.8

Average household size – 2.2

Median household income – $74,500

Without employment income – 44.6%

With employment income – 55.6%

Low-income prevalence – 11.8%

Labour force participation – 48.4%

Unemployed – 9.3%

Occupations (top 3) – trades & transport & operators, sales & service, business & finance & admin.

Labour sectors – construction, retail, healthcare & social assistance

Falkland/Deep Creek/Salmon Valley (Area D)

Population – 4,400

Increase – 8.8

Over 65 – 22.5

Under 14 – 16.5

Median age – 48

Average household size – 2.4

Median household income – 69,500

Without employment income – 34.8%

With employment income – 65.2%

Low-income prevalence – 13.8%

Labour force participation – 58%

Unemployed – 7.2%

Occupations (top 3) – trades & transport & operators, sales & service, Natural resources & agriculture

Labour sectors (top 3) – construction, manufacturing, healthcare & social assistance (fourth is agriculture and forestry)

North Shuswap (Area F)

Population – 3,200

Increase – 30.4%

Over 65 – 39.2%

Under 14 – 8.9%

Median age – 61.2

Average household size – 2.0

Median household income – $66,000

Without employment income – 46.4%

With employment income – 53.6%

Labour force participation – 44.3%

Unemployed – 12.9%

Low-income prevalence – 16.3%

Occupations (top 3) – trades & transport & operators, sales & service, business & finance & admin.

Labour sectors (top 3) – construction, retail, food & accommodation

Malakwa, Mara Lake (Area E)

Population – 1,388

Increase- 17.1

Over 65 – 28.8

Under 14 – 11.9

Median age 55.2

Average household size – 2.1

Median household income – $57,600

Without employment income – 37.8%

With employment income – 62.7%

Labour force participation – 62.1%

Unemployed – 18.5%

Low-income prevalence – 18.8%

Occupations (top 3) – trades & transport & operators, sales & service, business & finance & admin./ education, law and social, community and government services

Labour sectors (top 3) – accommodation & food services, construction, manufacturing

Sicamous

Population – 2,613

Increase – 7.6%

Over 65 – 31.2%

Under 14 – 10.9%

Median age – 57.6

Average household size – 2.1

Median household income – $65,000

Without employment income – 43%

With employment income – 57%

Labour force participation – 44.3%

Unemployed – 11.4%

Low-income prevalence – 14.8%

Occupations (top 3) – trades & transport & operators, sales & service, business & finance & admin./ education (tied with education, law and social, community and government services)

Labour sectors (top 3) – construction, retail (tied with health care), manufacturing

Chase

Population – 2,399

Increase – 4.9%

Over 65 – 39.2%

Under 14 – 11.7%

Median age – 59.6

Average household size – 2.0

Median household income – $60,400

Without employment income – 48.6%

With employment income – 51.4%

Labour force participation – 43.0%

Unemployed – 9.4%

Low-income prevalence – 14.8%

Occupations (top 3) – trades & transport & operators, sales & service, business & finance & admin./ education

Labour sectors (top 3) –retail, construction, manufacturing, healthcare & social assistance

Enderby

Population – 3,208

Increase – 2.2%

Over 65 – 32.9%

Under 14 – 13.9%

Median age – 54.4

Average household size – 2.1

Median household income – $60,400

Without employment income – 44.5%

With employment income – 55.3%

Low-income prevalence – 15.6%

Labour force participation – 47.9%

Unemployed 7.1%

Occupations (top 3) – sales & service, trades & transport & operators, business & finance & admin./ education

Labour sectors (top 3) – manufacturing, retail, health care & social assistance